Given that an accident happens, which type is most likely in these ship, operation and weather conditions?
Research prototype from a university assignment (MMAML01-1). Gradient-boosted trees (XGBoost) trained on EMSA EMCIP accidents, North Sea states, 2016–2026, with ERA5 weather and sea state. It ranks accident types; it does not estimate whether an accident will occur. Reporting country and ship/operation drive much of the result, and national reporting practice differs. Not for operational use.
Examples
Ship and operation
Time and light
Advanced: date of eventThe model learned from records 2016–2026; later dates are treated as the most recent record.
Weather and sea state
Prediction
Effect of the weather
Change in probability (percentage points) compared with average weather, other inputs unchanged.